Nikola Mirotic Is Hoiberg’s Best Hope

By George Eisner
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In an offseason the Chicago Bulls added established, prominent names in Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo to rising star Jimmy Butler, the key to making sense of their roster could lie in the hands of a player still trying to find his own NBA footing: Nikola Mirotic.

After a promising rookie campaign in which he finished second to Andrew Wiggins in Rookie of the Year voting, Mirotic struggled to make the transition to consistent starter. Chemistry issues arose when Bulls’ new head coach Fred Hoiberg benched long-time team leader Joakim Noah to start Pau Gasol and Mirotic in his pace and space system. The two proved to be ill-fitting and a crowded front court with Taj Gibson and rookie Bobby Portis made it difficult for Mirotic to carve out a consistent role on a nightly basis, and an appendectomy and hematoma removal further worked to derail his sophomore season.

Chicago purged some of the chemistry issues when they moved Derrick Rose and Noah to the New York Knicks for Robin Lopez and change, but still face questions of fit.

Hoiberg was hired to modernize the Bulls’ offense while still retaining enough of Tom Thibodeau’s defensive punch for Chicago to make a leap. But the front office has put him in a rough spot, acquiring players ill-suited to his preferred schemes, placing perhaps too heavy a reliance on Mirotic as the only player who can do all that is asked of the offense basketball-wise at an average to above average level.

The Bulls currently lack the athleticism, shooting, and players with the off-ball comfort level to run the pace-and-space style Hoiberg desires with any level of success.

Butler is plenty athletic, but needs to prove himself as a consistent outside threat after barely shooting above 31 percent from beyond the arc last season. Wade admitted his athleticism is trending downwards despite showing signs of greater health, and it’s no secret his three-point shot has always left something to be desired. Although Rondo shot above league-average from three last season for the first time in his career, he is poised to turn 31 years old in February and is admittedly not the high motor player he used to be.

So Chicago’s three most ball-dominant players are all ill-fitted for the offense their head coach wants to run. That’s going to be a problem for a team that plummeted to 25th in offensive rating last season after firing Thibodeau. While Butler and Wade are likely to do their fair share of scoring as Rondo continues to hunt for assists, Mirotic will have to become the team’s premiere perimeter threat if pace-and-space is going to work in Chicago.

Fortunately for Bulls fans, Mirotic has more than enough talent and motivation to do so.

When MIrotic returned from his February health problems, he found himself in a greater role due to Noah’s season-ending shoulder injury. Finally well and in a consistent role for the last 22 games of the season, Mirotic became the stretch four of Fred Hoiberg’s dreams. He averaged 14.1 points in less than 27 minutes per game while shooting a blistering 44.5 percent from long range on over six attempts per game. He hit at least three three-point field goals in eight of those final 22 contests, including five games in which he hit five or more.

Even when factoring in the rest of his season, Mirotic played capably in nearly every facet of the game. He was one of only 18 power forwards in the NBA last season to post positive RPM ratings on both offense and defense. Although he does have an occasional tendency to over-switch on defense, Mirotic actually managed to post better rim protection numbers last season than players like Tyson Chandler or Amir Johnson with similar minutes (per Nylon Calculus). His finishing around the rim and perimeter shooting also managed to stay well above average throughout last year as evidenced by his 2015-2016 heatmap:

Granted, his midrange shot was anything but consistent last season, but that’s not where he needs to be taking shots for the Bulls to be successful anyway. What will be crucial to the team’s success going forward will be for him to put on weight so he can become more involved in pick & roll/fade sets. Mirotic shoots almost 95 percent of his attempts from distance off of assists, but what’s most remarkable about that is he does so while rarely coming out of setting a screen:

In the video above—a game in which Mirotic tied Ben Gordon’s franchise record with nine threes in a single contest—this was the only three Mirotic made directly after setting the primary screen:

Last season, Mirotic only served as the roll-man on 7.6 percent of his possessions, which was next to last on the Bulls behind Jimmy Butler. Now that Gasol has moved on to the San Antonio Spurs, Mirotic must assume the role of the primary scoring-screener in Chicago’s offense, given Lopez’s inability to score outside of the paint. Fortunately for Mirotic, Rondo, Wade, and Butler averaged over 21 assists per game combined last season, so he’s going to have a variety of capable pick and roll initiators to work off of should he assume such a role.

But that begs the question, can and will Mirotic actually do it? From the weight gain standpoint, his Instagram would appear to indicate he is steadily adding muscle mass this summer to his (formerly) twiggy frame:

From the perspective of motivation, it would certainly be in Mirotic’s best financial interests to play up to his potential given he is in the last year of his contract as the salary cap prepares to make yet another jump next offseason. If he can continue to shoot prolifically from three and remain a well-rounded talent as a consistent starter, he’ll have a shot at earning a contract somewhere in the range of $20 million per year like the one Ryan Anderson just received from the Houston Rockets.

Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler are clearly going to be the leaders of this upcoming Chicago Bulls squad, but the team’s success remains reliant on the growth of Nikola Mirotic. If he can play at a similar or superior level than he did to close out last season, the Bulls could be much better than just another team over .500.

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