Find out who the most average player in the NBA is and whether his contract is a good value or not.
How often do you hear fans complain that a player on his favorite team is a bust? Or he sucks. Or he just doesn’t contribute. This kind of criticism bothers me since any player who makes it to the NBA is one of the top 400 players in the world. Of course, some players never find their best situation and never reach their potential, but it shouldn’t take away from what they’ve accomplished just making the NBA.
What I set out to do was look at the average player. What does the average player at each position look like? If we could go into Frankenstein’s lab, grab various body parts, and stitch them together, what kind of production would you expect from the average Small Forward?
POS
PG
SG
SF
PF
C
GMS
74
72
71
68
69
MIN
24.4
26.6
25.9
24.6
27.9
PTS
10.7
11.2
9.7
10.4
12.8
REB
2.7
3.1
3.8
5.6
7.4
AST
4
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.6
STL
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
BLK
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.2
TO
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.4
TS%
51%
53.40%
54%
54.1%
51.6%
3PT%
30.9%
36.4%
34.3%
39%
21.4%
FT%
81.3%
80%
77.6%
73.20%
70%
Salary
$3,553,917
$3,750,000
$3,278,000
$5,700,000
$4,800,000
The Average Production By Position in 2014-15
And how about if we looked at the average salary at each position and compared it to the players who most closely resembled our FrankenAverage Player? All of a sudden, a player who we thought sucked ends up being very average – not good, but not bad. And perhaps his salary is lower than the average salary at that position, making him an overall value.
So this is what we did: With the help of Arturo Galletti’s expert number crunching machine (elves?), we computed the exact average production for all five positions. Granted, we are slowly moving more towards positionless basketball, where point guards score more and small forwards play the 4. But to keep it simple, we calculated a player’s position using Basketball Reference’s position data, which is why you’ll see Avery Bradley in the point guard group, and Terrence Jones at center.
From this, wesee that Jordan Clarkson’s numbers were closest to the average point guard data, and as a rookie at this tough position, this was a revelation that earned him All-Rookie 1st Team honors. Factor in his low rookie salary, and he’s an absolute bargain – in fact, he’s among the best values of any of the backcourt players.
On the flip side, Avery Bradley made the most money out of the 10 most average point guards, which means he’s making over $3.5 million more than the average salary. As the Celtics begin their ascent as a power in the East, they will certainly expect his production to improve, or realize they’ve got a problematic contract on their hands. That said, he makes up for his offensive shortcomings with stellar defense at a key position.
POS
PG
GMS
74
BLK
0.2
MIN
24.4
TO
1.7
PTS
10.7
TS%
51%
REB
2.7
3PT%
30.90%
AST
4
FT%
81.30%
STL
0.9
Salary
3,553,917
Player
Salary
Avg Salary ∆
Clarkson
507,336
3,046,581
Burke
2,548,560
1,005,357
Watson
2,077,000
1,476,917
LaVine
2,055,840
1,498,077
J Jack
6,300,000
-2,746,083
A Brooks
915,243
2,638,674
McCallum
816,482
2,737,435
Cole
2,038,207
1,515,710
A Bradley
7,191,011
-3,637,094
R Jackson
2,204,369
1,349,548
The average shooting guard doesn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet, but does shoot about NBA average from three-point range. The player whose stats most closely resemble the average is O.J. Mayo of the Bucks, however he is also paid over 4 million dollars more than the average shooting guard salary. The best value last year was Tim Hardaway, Jr., who might have been perceived as a bust, but has contributed enough to be one of the top 10 most average scoring guards in the NBA – and at a rookie salary, the best value amongst anyone at his position.
POS
SG
GMS
72
BLK
0.2
MIN
26.6
TO
1.4
PTS
11.2
TS%
53.40%
REB
3.1
3PT%
36.40%
AST
2.2
FT%
80%
STL
0.8
Salary
3,750,000
Player
Salary
Avg Salary ∆
Mayo
8,000,000
-4,250,000
Stuckey
915,243
2,834,757
McLemore
3,026,280
723,720
G Henderson
6,000,000
-2,250,000
J Crawford
5,450,000
-1,700,000
Hardaway
1,250,640
2,499,360
G Green
3,500,000
250,000
Fournier
1,483,920
2,266,080
Foye
3,000,000
750,000
Waiters
4,062,000
-312,000
Small Forward is an interesting position these days, as more and more of them are playing power forward for longer stretches. As a result, their production isn’t overwhelming, and the average salary is the lowest of all the positions. 3 players tied for best value amongst average small forwards since they all had the same salary: Omri Casspi, Jae Crowder and Wes Johnson. The player with the worst value of the group is the guy who’s numbers were most average: Danilo Gallinari. That said, he was coming back from a major knee injury, and played really well over the last quarter of the season. The next guy in line was Paul Pierce, who got over $2 million more than the average salary.
POS
SF
GMS
71
BLK
0.3
MIN
25.9
TO
1.1
PTS
9.7
TS%
54%
REB
3.8
3PT%
34.30%
AST
1.5
FT%
77.60%
STL
0.7
Avg Salary
3,278,000
Player
Salary
Avg Salary ∆
Gallinari
10,854,850
-7,576,850
Ross
2,793,960
484,040
Brewer
4,702,500
-1,424,500
Pierce
5,305,000
-2,027,000
Barnes
3,396,250
-118,250
Johnson
915,243
2,362,757
Hood
1,290,360
1,987,640
Crowder
915,243
2,362,757
Hill
1,302,840
1,975,160
Casspi
915,243
2,362,757
Let’s shift to the big men, where the average power forward had the lowest point, assist, steal, output of any position. And who most resembles the average NBA player? You guessed it: Quincy Acy was actually an exactly average power forward for the Knicks last year. The rest of the field looks like this, and now let’s look at relative value. Acy tops the list of best value, with Shawne Williams of the Heat right behind him. On the other end of the spectrum, Brandon Bass made over $1 million more than the average power forward salary, with everyone else on this list making less than the average. What is even more surprising is that this position has the highest median salary among all the positions.
POS
PF
GMS
68
BLK
0.4
MIN
24.6
TO
1.2
PTS
10.4
TS%
54.10%
REB
5.6
3PT%
39%
AST
1.5
FT%
73.20%
STL
0.6
Avg Salary
5,700,000
PF
Salary
Avg Salary ∆
Acy
915,243
4,784,757
Tolliver
3,000,000
2,700,000
Bennett
5,563,920
136,080
Collison
2,242,003
3,457,997
Jerebko
4,500,000
1,200,000
Copeland
3,135,000
2,565,000
Scott
3,333,333
2,366,667
Booker
5,000,000
700,000
Bass
6,900,000
-1,200,000
Williams
1,227,985
4,472,015
And on to our final position – the center. Interestingly, this position plays the most minutes per game, scores the most points, and grabs the most rebounds. And the player who most closely resembles these numbers is Derrick Favors. And for his average production, he makes 8 million over the average salary. But that’s not the biggest gap: Brook Lopez scored well, but every other category was very close to the average production, and he earned almost $11 million more than average. Al jefferson and Nene are notable for their differences. And on the other end of the spectrum, Henry Sims gave the Sixers the most value, with Gorgui Dieng not far behind.
POS
C
GMS
69
BLK
1.2
MIN
27.9
TO
1.4
PTS
12.8
TS%
51.60%
REB
7.4
3PT%
21.40%
AST
1.6
FT%
70%
STL
0.9
Avg Salary
4,800,000
C
Salary
Avg Salary ∆
Favors
12,833,333
-8,033,333
Dieng
1,413,480
3,386,520
Sullinger
1,424,520
3,375,480
Nene
13,000,000
-8,200,000
Jones
1,618,680
3,181,320
Jefferson
13,500,000
-8,700,000
Lopez
15,719,063
-10,919,063
Sims
915,243
3,884,757
Motiejunas
1,483,920
3,316,080
Mozgov
4,650,000
150,000
Now that we’ve gotten a handle on who exactly is average, and at what price, I hope you adjust your line of thinking next time you want to scream “Wesley Johnson stinks!” at the TV screen. It turns out Wes Johnson is simply average, and is a complete bargain at that.
Coach Nick is the founder of BballBreakdown, coached the Triangle Offense at the high school level, and counts Tex Winter and Pete Newell as mentors. For more of our conversation, follow him @BBALLBREAKDOWN.
Derrick Favors is not a center. Additionally, I would think that deviation from the mean isn’t graphed on a line but a curve, where the farther you get from the mean the faster your value rises.
This exercise also seems to undervalue defensive contributions. Avery bradley, green, and favors all provide significant value to their teams on the defensive end. On the same thread, the value of certain players like Foye, Burke, Sims, and Collison might be overstated because of their D liabilities.
Nice premise. Great way for GMS to be able to know the value of a player.
You can tinker around with this model using more advanced stats to measure a players value even more
Yes – @Run_Pappy – I need to add defense in here, probably with Defensive Win Shares. In fact, I need to do this again with Win Shares for Offense and Overall. Derrick Favors played center a lot for the Jazz, we were using basketball-reference, he played center 25% of the time…
Good stuff here. But I think in order to really evaluate a player’s quality, we have to also take into account how one’s teammates affect a player’s numbers (WOWY analysis). For example: How are JJ Redick’s numbers inflated/deflated with Chris Paul on the floor?
Derrick Favors is not a center. Additionally, I would think that deviation from the mean isn’t graphed on a line but a curve, where the farther you get from the mean the faster your value rises.
This exercise also seems to undervalue defensive contributions. Avery bradley, green, and favors all provide significant value to their teams on the defensive end. On the same thread, the value of certain players like Foye, Burke, Sims, and Collison might be overstated because of their D liabilities.
Nice premise. Great way for GMS to be able to know the value of a player.
You can tinker around with this model using more advanced stats to measure a players value even more
Yes – @Run_Pappy – I need to add defense in here, probably with Defensive Win Shares. In fact, I need to do this again with Win Shares for Offense and Overall. Derrick Favors played center a lot for the Jazz, we were using basketball-reference, he played center 25% of the time…
Good stuff here. But I think in order to really evaluate a player’s quality, we have to also take into account how one’s teammates affect a player’s numbers (WOWY analysis). For example: How are JJ Redick’s numbers inflated/deflated with Chris Paul on the floor?